Assessing Canada's Renewable Energy Potential under Climate Change through a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Approach

Abstract

In this study, Canada's renewable energy potential under future climate scenarios is assessed through an ensemble approach based on the CMIP6 models. The research is focused on the evaluation of hydro, solar, and wind energy potential across different regions in Canada, by taking into account projected changes in surface runoff, solar radiation, and windspeed from 2020 to 2099 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results indicate significant spatial and temporal variations in renewable energy resources, with a general decline in surface runoff, particularly in Western Canada, which poses challenges for local hydropower generation. Solar energy potential is expected to increase consistently across all regions, with the most significant increases in central and northern Canada. Wind energy shows relatively smaller changes, with a notable increase in Eastern Canada. This comprehensive assessment provides crucial insights for optimizing renewable energy development, and supports Canada’s plan to transform into a low-carbon economy.

Keywords: renewable energy, climate change, CMIP6 ensemble projection, surface runoff, solar radiation, windspeed